The evaluation of CO2 emissions mitigation scenarios for Turkish electricity sector

Abstract

This study presents the results on the simulations of the scenarios based on the CO2 emission reduction of the electricity sector in Turkey, utilising the long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) system model, and the mitigation costs of the scenarios. Three scenarios including baseline scenario, (scenario 1) and the two mitigation scenarios (scenario 2 and scenario 3) are employed. The scenario 1 is based on the continuation of the recent electricity generation composition. Scenario 2 is established for the evaluation of all the renewable energy potential, except solar, of Turkey while scenario 3 included all the renewable and nuclear energy. The CO2 emission intensity decreased by 20.5% and 35.6% for the scenarios 2 and 3 in 2030, respectively compared to the baseline scenario. The CO2 emission mitigation costs are found 17 $/ ton CO2 and 40 $/ ton CO2 for the Scenarios 2 and 3, respectively through 2010 to 2030.